The concept above might just remain a science fiction. The underlying theme, however, is not new. For the last couple of decades, water as a critical resource has been a point of contention between India and it’s not so friendly neighbours.
Water is an important national asset that drives economy, and impacts national development, social cohesion and peaceful living. Reports suggest that the annual per capita availability of renewable freshwater in India fell from 5,277 cubic metres in 1955 to 1730 cubic metres in 2010 and is estimated to further decline to 1240 for India by 2035. Six of India’s major river basins are ‘water-scarce’, according to a World Bank report.
Water Security and National Security
Water security impacts national security, for it affects the very social cohesion of the nation. Resource constraints destabilise an economy and often impact the social cohesion. Resources of other nature, coal for e.g., have become a pivotal point aiding insurgencies in the region. Maoism in India, for instance, is prevalent in the coal rich, red belt of India.
With over 20 percent of world’s population and just four percent of its water, India is severely water stressed. Many experts on the subject also believe that water as a scarce resource is going to be the next major reason of conflict especially in the South Asia. In addition, water is a key factor in border tensions between India and its two neighbours – Pakistan and China.
India is deeply concerned about increased Chinese infrastructure construction activities along the Tsangpo River and the possible diversion to the water-scarce North China from the Great Bend. Arunachal Pradesh and Assam will be the worst hit states in case of any water diversion by China. The friction between the river sharing neighbours will only increase if a mutually acceptable doctrine or a framework for river water sharing in various scenarios is not worked out. In an environmentally insecure South Asia, India shares its water with China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan and to a lesser extent, with Myanmar. In states like Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, which are more dependent on the Brahmaputra River that flows from Tibet into lower riparian India, water will be a point of tension between India and the water poor Tibet/China.
On the Eastern side, India has been generous in terms of the water sharing with Pakistan through the Indus Waters Treaty. Pakistan, however, accuses India of planning a ‘water bomb’ by suffocating its economy by manipulating Indus waters. Pakistani-based terrorist outfits have linked water with jihad, while the Pakistani government used it as a weapon to distract attention. An editorial in April in Nawa-i-Waqt, a Pakistani newspaper, warned that “Pakistan should convey to India that a war is possible on the issue of water, and this time, war will be a nuclear one.” Lashkar-e-Taiba threatens to blow up any dams that might come up on the Indus waters.
India has many treaties signed with Bangladesh. Yet, sharing of Teesta River (lifeline river of Sikkim) and the construction of Tipaimukh hydro project have caused political discontent between the Indian and Bangladeshi sides. In north-eastern India bordering Bangladesh, severe water scarcity in Bangladesh may lead to forced migration of thousands of environmental refugees from Bangladesh into India. North-eastern India, as such, is sensitive with separatist sentiments. Inclusion of migrants may become a hostile affair denting national security. The recent Assam-Bodo riots are a live example of this.
With Nepal and Bhutan, India needs to address concerns and bridge the trust deficit by investing in the hydro projects in these countries. Though India has issues with Nepal on Gandak and Kosi Rivers, relations with Bhutan have so far been stress free due to cooperation on hydro-electricity generation.
The pictograph below depicts the current Indian position with respect to broad parameters of1:
1. Water Scarcity (impact on India): Impact on India in terms of water scarcity would be higher in the case of China, since India is a lower riparian region. Thus, Pakistan and Bangladesh rate lower on this parameter.
2. Possibility of violence due to water conflict: Possibility of violence or a potential armed conflict depends on existing bilateral relations. Given the scenario with Pakistan, this is higher. The same with China is relatively lower.
3. Negotiation power of India: In the case of Bangladesh, the negotiation power of India is higher since the rivers flow from India to Bangladesh.
4. Perceptions and sensitivities involved
5. Forced Migration (into India)
The plotted values are relative to one another.
The Way Forward
The ways to resolve water scarcity and ensure water security are not new. Time and again, these aspects are brought up. However, little has been done in this area. On the diplomacy front, India should focus on establishing frameworks for water sharing in the areas of conflict, while undertaking confidence building measures in Nepal and Bhutan. India should seek all necessary hydrological data from China. Awareness within all stakeholders needs to be brought up with regard to climate changes and the impact on water flow. Ultimately, this just focuses on one way of securing water.
To match the supply and demand of water as a resource, three possible solutions exist. These include increase in water supply, increase in the efficiency to minimise water losses and thus better resource utilisation (currently 40% of the water in urban areas is lost due to pipe leaks2), and to reduce the demand for water through change in water usage in various activities through innovation. While water/hydro-diplomacy and river water treaties with neighbouring countries can help secure water by the first way, efficient resource governance and innovation in water utilisation areas are the means to achieve the remaining two ways.
India needs to improve its resource governance and water infrastructure, and deploy better technologies that bring in operational efficiencies to the process.
(published in The Diplomatist, July 2013 Link: http://www.diplomatist.com/stories/story021.html)
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