Blessed with gorgeous green waters and enviable white beaches, and often termed as the Indian Ocean paradise with a tag line ‘sunny side of the life’, the microstate of the Maldives has had its share of political upheavals, natural disasters, attempted coups, riots, increasing radicalisation and other concerns that pose a threat to the national security of the island nation. This, in turn, has serious security implications to peninsular India.
Located geo-strategically in the Indian Ocean with three major sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) passing through its territorial waters, Maldives is a promise to India of a strategic node that can deliver a strong economic influence in the region during peace time and a great tactical advantage during wartime. However, it also has the potential to turn into a paradise lost by becoming a launch pad for attacks over India.
Issues Confronting Maldives Today
Grappling with challenges of rising Islamic radicalisation in an otherwise moderate Maldivian culture, increasing drug abuse with atolls becoming hubs of drug trafficking and associated networks, violation of human rights that received huge criticism from the international community – Maldives is yet to stabilise as a democracy.
Marked by diseconomies of scale and scope due to its small size, lack of natural resources and skilled manpower, geophysical constraints and vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters, a major share of the GDP comes from tourism and related services (including transportation and communication).
The ‘Pearl of the Indian Ocean’ has done a commendable job post-independence by improving the tourism industry, while positioning the country in the international scene as the one spearheading the world’s climatic change initiatives. Contrary to the four decade old UNDP’s conclusions that stated that the tourism industry cannot thrive in the Maldives due to lack of “facilities and infrastructure”, the country has carved a niche for itself as one of the most coveted vacation destinations. However, the future of Maldives relies heavily on international trade, especially for food and energy security.
This article is an attempt to look at the Indo-Maldives association from a Copenhagen school of thought perspective of security that takes a holistic view of societal, political, environmental, military and economic aspects of national security, in order to assess the threat scenario and possible outcomes and their implications to either side.
Precarious Political System
The political stability of the island state is crucial to India and its Indian Ocean strategy that is aimed largely at securing the SLOC’s to ensure that its supply chain is secure. This shall also ascertain greater strategic thrust serving broader security objectives for India. Marred with attempted coups, social unrest, growing terrorism and violation of human rights, the political system in Maldives is a very delicate fabric.
Indian policy towards Maldives should be government focussed and not political party or a person focussed. India has learnt its lessons from the Bangladeshi strategy in a bitter way. At the moment, all major political parties in the ruling coalition as well as the opposition have a pro-India stance. India should leverage this universal acceptance and aim for a stable relationship. This draws more importance due to transition of Maldives into a multi-party democracy from the so called ‘beach dictatorship’.
Economic Imperatives
The atolls are composed of coral reefs and sandy beaches situated atop a submarine ridge 960 kilometres long that rises abruptly from the depths of the Indian Ocean and runs north to south. The southern end of this natural coral barricade opens to two passages that permit safe ship navigation from one side of the ocean to the other through the territorial waters of Maldives.
With 65 percent of maritime trade between the East and the West passing through the territorial waters of Maldives, it is one of the densest maritime trade routes of the world. The country that controls this trade route will eventually control the global economy. Such is the importance of this trade route and thus the strategic interests of various economies including India, China and the US.
The threat to the security of our sea lanes is directly correlated to the threat to our energy security. Also, influence, if not dominance over trade routes, also serves a strategic purpose. During the Kargil conflict, for instance, a massive naval deployment 13 nautical miles away from Karachi denied oil supplies into Pakistan and prompted, some claim, to de-escalate its land assault and accelerated withdrawal of Pakistani forces from the disputed area. Trade routes, thus, form a crucial component in any assessment of India-Maldives dialogue.
Energy Security
With no fossil fuel resources, the country depends on imports for petroleum products. The UNDP has rated Maldives as most vulnerable in terms of Oil Price Vulnerability Index (OPVI), which ranks countries in terms of their economic strength and performance, and their vulnerability to fluctuations in global oil prices. Maldives’ risk management strategies include hedging of the oil prices. For instance, Maldives secured long term contracts with Kuwait for oil with limited price discounts on spot rates and medium term supply contracts. In future too, it will rely heavily on the Arab world for its energy needs, part of which follows Islamic conservatism that could potentially translate into increased Islamic radicalisation in the islands. India’s foreign policy towards Maldives should thus take into consideration this inevitability.
India may not be in a position to provide oil security to Maldives as the former imports 68 percent of its oil consumed. Investing in the alternate energy sector in Maldives could be a practical solution. A suitable trade and investment policy that encourages Indian entrepreneurs to set up bases in Maldives in this sector could be a viable option.
Food Security Concerns
With no significant domestic cultivation, food security is a critical concern for Maldives. India’s intervention in this area must be aimed at safeguarding food security concerns, which in turn provides the archipelago greater flexibility in international relations. So far, India and the Arab countries have been providing food aid to the Maldives on an ad hoc basis, while Japan has been providing it on a regular basis. Continued support from India that would bolster the food security of Maldives would not only provide greater security, but also increased goodwill towards India.
While agro-based investments are not a viable option due to lack of cultivable land in the islands, enhancing exports of fresh food and vegetables, especially from the southern part of the country that is closer, would deepen trade relations, if not revive the lost ethnic Dravidian identity that both sides share.
Food and energy security have a strong influence on the political and economic stability of any country. Maldives is no exception. The 2004 Tsunami took its toll, hurting the tourism industry, a major contributor to the GDP and plunging the population into a state of abject poverty, unemployment and social unrest: a perfect recipe for any form of extremism to germinate and prosper. Lashkar-e-Taiba’s charitable wing Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq (IKK) is believed to have spent about $282,000 in Tsunami relief activities in 2005, an act that enabled the LeTgain access and foothold in the islands.
Threats to Societal and State Security
In 2011, the (then) President of Maldives expressed concerns over his country being used as the launch pad for any terrorist attack on India. India’s Intelligence Bureau also reported in the media that there was growing terror activity in Maldives, upholding deep concerns expressed by the US over Maldives becoming another terror hub.
Instances of Maldivian militants attacking India pose a threat to the Indo-Maldivian relations. Kashmir, for example, witnessed Maldivian militants fighting against the Indian forces in 2007. The 26/11 Mumbai attacks, according to the (then) Maldivian President Nasheed, had a Maldivian connection. In 2009, nine jihadists from Maldives were arrested in Pakistan’s extremely conservative, pro-Taliban Waziristan province that often functions as an independent territory.
Rampant radicalisation in the islands grew by infiltration of more than 500 clerics from various madrasas of Pakistan and Arab countries. The 2005 arrest of a militant, who frequented Kochi to procure arms and ammunition for LeT activities in Maldives, and who later confessed to planning the bombing of a government owned mosque and the assassination of the then president Gayoom, also confirms manifestation of religious terrorism in Maldives. This is a new phenomenon in an otherwise moderate and open Maldivian society, thus hampering the socio-cultural fabric of the nation.
Nexus between Terrorists and Pirates
The possibility of terrorists joining hands with the pirates to destabilise the Indian Ocean also poses a grave threat to the SLOC’s, further impacting global trade. A stronger cooperation between the two governments to curtail this threat is the need of the hour. A growing number of terrorist cells that operate out of Maldives are ready to strike at the orders from their main bases in Pakistan, Afghanistan, India or Iraq, according to security analysts in the region. India needs to consider the possibility of integration of Maldives into its security and intelligence grid, while strengthening the surveillance and monitoring operations in the region.
India needs to assume the role of not only a nation that safeguards the security interests of Maldives, but also that of upholding grassroot aspirations, especially that of the youth and students by providing them education in India in a much more secular environment. This would provide the youth with wider options, broader perspective and avenues of employment. India has rich cultural heritage hosting numerous madrasas that follow a rather moderate form of Islam. Handholding with these institutions of Islamic excellence by the Ministry of External Affairs and the Ministry of Cultural affairs would not only espouse values of peaceful Islam, but also provide us with an opportunity to put across our school of thought logically. In addition to this, educating the Maldivian youth in our institutions in the fields of Marine and Environmental Engineering, Arts and Sciences, Medicine and Law would foster strong ties between the communities on the either side.
A Pearl in the ‘String of Pearls’?
A report by Booz Allen Hamilton to the Pentagon on ‘Energy Futures of Asia’ in 2003 coined a term called ‘String of Pearls’ that reported possible strategic encirclement by China. It is evident that Maldives presents a huge strategic advantage and the Sino-Indian interests in these pearls are thus need-driven. India can choke the sea lanes, denying oil into China should there be a land assault between India and China on the Himalayan frontiers.
Operationally too, Maldives has a historical significance. As a British protectorate, the Southern Gan Island of Maldives was used as an operational base during the World War II, which is believed to have given a huge tactical advantage to the UK. This could also be another reason for Chinese interests in the islands. India, on the other hand, has established an operational base in the Lakshadweep, a few hundred miles from the Maldives, thus bringing about the same advantage with self-reliance.
While China currently has no military base established in the Maldives, reports that indicated China’s interests in building a submarine base on Marao a few years ago irked New Delhi. Scholars from the University of Pennsylvania too documented in their writings that China’s submarine base in the Maldives represented a direct challenge to the American air and naval base at Diego Garcia. India, however, has a coastal radar network set upon the atolls of the Maldives that are integrated with the Indian Coastal command. Maldives is one area where the security interests of India and the US align thus providing an opportunity for Indo-US collaboration.
Policy Points to Ponder
The possibility of Maldives becoming a likely pearl for China is, however, remote. The archipelago would not want to face the hostility of a neighbour that has proven in many instances that Maldives is very much in the operational reach of the Indian Navy. Also, Maldives stated an ‘India-first-Policy’, which was reiterated by various presidents in the past. However, with the recent developments surrounding GMR and the anti-India wave in the archipelago, the government’s stance could differ from the stated policy.
Certain specific and targeted initiatives such as using the social media and the Internet for strengthening Indo-Maldives relations at grassroot level can do wonders. Maldives has high internet literacy accounting to about 1/3rd of its population. Thus, the Internet is a good medium for communication and pro-India campaigns. India should, with the support of the Maldivian government, tighten the security grid that integrates Maldives and address any trust deficit at the budding stages itself. India also needs to cautiously assess the socio-political and economic situation in the Maldives from time to time and avoid unnecessary securitisation of issues that are otherwise of social, political or economic nature. This would position India as a trustworthy friend and pave the way to beneficial long term relations. Maldives certainly is a worthy bet for bilateral cooperation towards enhanced security.
(published in The Diplomatist, April 2013 Link: http://www.diplomatist.com/dipom04y2013/story009.html)
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