Getting the Afghanistan Story Right

The President of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, paid a two day working visit to India from May 20-22, during the course of which he was conferred a Doctoris Honoris Causa for Letters by the Lovely Professional University, Punjab. The visit was also an occasion to review the status of on-going Indian-assisted development projects in and for Afghanistan. Prasanthy Gurugubelli explores the intrinsic importance of a secure and stable Afghanistan for India and analyses the pertinent question of deescalating tensions in the region by a policy of active engagement. She also answers questions regarding India’s positive contributions to Afghanistan’s development for durable peace and sustainable economic development

Afghanistan, with its strategic location, can emerge not only as a critical transit hub, but can also boost economic development in the region, benefitting its immediate neighbours, India and Pakistan

The Indian government has been mindful of the international dynamics around Afghanistan, as the country remains key to India’s national security. Post the announcement of withdrawal of the NATO led (International Security Assistance Forces) ISAF; several confidence building measures have been taken to ensure the stability of Afghanistan. However, this is not an easy task as it would require concerted efforts and consensus on vital matters from regional powers such as India, China, Russia and Pakistan. India, Russia and China are concerned about the possibility of a resurgence of Taliban, which could threaten the delicate geo-strategic fabric of the volatile region. Emergence of the Taliban would threaten Afghanistan’s economic and political development and would spread insecurity throughout the regime, which, in turn, would sponsor international and home-grown terrorism. A peaceful, united and stable Afghanistan is vital for peace and economic development. There has to be a consolidated agreement to terrorism and extremism in Afghanistan, which cannot go unabated. There has to be pursuance of political, security and economic cooperation between Afghanistan and India.

Pipeline Politics

Historically, India has enjoyed good cultural ties with Afghanistan, except for the period from 1996-2001, which was dominated by Taliban rule of warring lords. Since the fall of the Taliban, India has been a primary donor in Afghanistan reconstruction. India has been instrumental in presenting aircrafts to kick-start Ariana Airlines, Afghanistan’s national carrier. India has also been active in building roads, schools, hospitals, and power and communication networks, besides training its military, police, bureaucrats, diplomats and even businessmen.

India is currently in discussions with Afghanistan to build a rail line from Bandar Abbas port in Western Iran, which will be a critical infrastructural linkage for Afghanistan’s first steel plant — the $11-billion Hajigak iron and steel project – promoted by Indian companies in central Afghanistan. The funding for this primarily comes from the $2 billion aid that the Indian government has offered to Afghanistan.

India has always sent out messages of solidarity and trust to this war-scarred nation. According to Former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, “On the political side, really our effort has been to contribute to the strengthening of this national consensus, inter-ethnic harmony in Afghanistan because we believe that for the return of political stability it is important for the different ethnic communities to work together”.

Ensuring Energy Security

Economically, Afghanistan is important to India as the country serves as a gateway to the energy and mineral rich Central Asian countries. The developing country has a lot of reconstruction projects and it offers significant opportunities for Indian companies. Afghanistan is a fast growing and emerging market of strategic importance, providing key transit routes for the Central Asian oil and gas market in India. However, a transit route connecting Iran and Central Asian countries has been denied to India by Pakistan, as the latter has always been averse to giving transit rights to India through Afghanistan. The issue of transit rights has affected talks of a gas pipeline from Iran via Afghanistan. India has often been misinterpreted by Pakistan, as one Pakistani official stated that the opening of Indian consulates in southern Afghanistan was motivated by the purpose of sponsoring cross border terrorism in Pakistan. Such attitudes from Pakistan’s strategic military circles have been averse to deepening India-Afghanistan ties.

Key Investment Area 

Afghanistan offers a pro-business minded environment with legislation favourable to private markets. The principles of free market economy are incorporated in the new Constitution, just as the growth of the private sector is the cornerstone of the National Developmental Strategy.

The country is home to rich natural resources and mineral reserves with more than 1,400 identified mineral deposits, including oil, gas, coal, iron and copper deposits of world quality. It is also well known for its reserves of emerald, jade, amethyst, alabaster, beryl, lapis, lazuli, ruby, quartz and sapphire. Great opportunities for investments also exist within the hydrocarbons industry.

Indian companies have already established bases in Afghanistan and are looking at a greater footprint. Thus, even in pure business terms, the country offers a great return on investment, but with the obvious risks.

Arch Rivals; Aligned Interests

Stability of Afghanistan is in the interest of the international community. The interests of US, Russia, India and China are all aligned in the Afghanistan story. India and China believe that a more regional approach is the need of the hour given the 2014 withdrawal of NATO forces. From the geo-economics standpoint, the US is interested in redirecting Central Asian oil from China to a market controlled by the stock exchanges in New York, London, Tokyo and Singapore; and, to find alternate routes to transport Caspian Sea resources without going through Iranian territory despite the fact that a route with access to the Persian Gulf is more cost-effective. The US may want to have its checks and balances in the region given the geopolitical interests of Russia and the growing influence of China. Russia certainly has an economic stake in post-war Afghanistan along with the possibility of facing instability in the central Asian region as also indoctrination of its Muslim population.

India and China held their first bilateral talks on Afghan security on April 18 this year. It is still unclear whether India and China will be able to collaborate with each other on Afghanistan, since both countries have invested heavily in the country’s mining and oil sectors. Further both countries have common security interests, as China is equally threatened by Islamic radicalisation and the repercussions of Taliban reprise in the Xinjiang province of China. However, analysts note that China might not want to upset its all-weather friend Pakistan by supporting India in any significant way.

While India’s efforts in development and reconstruction have been appreciated by the government and people of Afghanistan, India needs to be cautious of any possibility of misreading its intentions in the region as those of an expansionist power or as battling for Afghan wealth.

Afghanistan is surrounded on one hand by the Caspian basin that holds huge oil and gas reserves and China, India and Pakistan on the other hand, which are major consumers of oil and gas. Thus, it has a very high potential of becoming a strategic hub connecting Central Asia to various export routes and markets. It is a known fact that exploration for oil and gas in the region has been hindered by years of conflict and wars, leaving the country’s energy wealth mostly untapped.

The focus of Indian support to Afghanistan needs to be on the country’s economic empowerment and a strategic partnership that deepens friendly ties between both, resulting from long-standing efforts from both and strong cultural similarities. India has often reiterated that it does not view Afghanistan as a zero sum game and it is not a war against Pakistan. Afghanistan’s stability is crucial for India, not only from a security perspective but also from an economic standpoint. Afghanistan with its strategic location can become not only a critical transit hub, but also an economic driver of development in the region that will benefit countries like India and Pakistan. So far, India seems to be getting the Afghanistan story right with the right focus on development and capacity building and a decision of avoiding any involvement in bolstering Afghan security, except for running few courses for the Afghan forces in India.

(published in The Diplomatist, June 2013 Link: http://www.diplomatist.com/dipom06y2013/story010.html)

Hydro-Diplomacy & National Security

In a high-stakes-suspense and an intriguing plot, Clive Cussler in his recent novel The Storm brings out a most audacious scheme in which a global deliberate change in weather through organic microbots is planned. The microbots cause imbalance in the atmosphere affecting wind directions and weather parameters due to which the rainfall is directed to select areas. International Consortium of investors from water-poor nations funding this scheme included those from China and Pakistan. They envision monsoons in deserts and barren lands by shifting the monsoons from India and elsewhere, and direct them to Pakistan, China and the Arab countries. 

The concept above might just remain a science fiction. The underlying theme, however, is not new. For the last couple of decades, water as a critical resource has been a point of contention between India and it’s not so friendly neighbours. 

Water is an important national asset that drives economy, and impacts national development, social cohesion and peaceful living. Reports suggest that the annual per capita availability of renewable freshwater in India fell from 5,277 cubic metres in 1955 to 1730 cubic metres in 2010 and is estimated to further decline to 1240 for India by 2035. Six of India’s major river basins are ‘water-scarce’, according to a World Bank report. 

Water Security and National Security

Water security impacts national security, for it affects the very social cohesion of the nation. Resource constraints destabilise an economy and often impact the social cohesion. Resources of other nature, coal for e.g., have become a pivotal point aiding insurgencies in the region. Maoism in India, for instance, is prevalent in the coal rich, red belt of India.

With over 20 percent of world’s population and just four percent of its water, India is severely water stressed. Many experts on the subject also believe that water as a scarce resource is going to be the next major reason of conflict especially in the South Asia. In addition, water is a key factor in border tensions between India and its two neighbours – Pakistan and China.

India is deeply concerned about increased Chinese infrastructure construction activities along the Tsangpo River and the possible diversion to the water-scarce North China from the Great Bend. Arunachal Pradesh and Assam will be the worst hit states in case of any water diversion by China. The friction between the river sharing neighbours will only increase if a mutually acceptable doctrine or a framework for river water sharing in various scenarios is not worked out. In an environmentally insecure South Asia, India shares its water with China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan and to a lesser extent, with Myanmar. In states like Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, which are more dependent on the Brahmaputra River that flows from Tibet into lower riparian India, water will be a point of tension between India and the water poor Tibet/China. 

On the Eastern side, India has been generous in terms of the water sharing with Pakistan through the Indus Waters Treaty. Pakistan, however, accuses India of planning a ‘water bomb’ by suffocating its economy by manipulating Indus waters. Pakistani-based terrorist outfits have linked water with jihad, while the Pakistani government used it as a weapon to distract attention. An editorial in April in Nawa-i-Waqt, a Pakistani newspaper, warned that “Pakistan should convey to India that a war is possible on the issue of water, and this time, war will be a nuclear one.” Lashkar-e-Taiba threatens to blow up any dams that might come up on the Indus waters. 

India has many treaties signed with Bangladesh. Yet, sharing of Teesta River (lifeline river of Sikkim) and the construction of Tipaimukh hydro project have caused political discontent between the Indian and Bangladeshi sides. In north-eastern India bordering Bangladesh, severe water scarcity in Bangladesh may lead to forced migration of thousands of environmental refugees from Bangladesh into India. North-eastern India, as such, is sensitive with separatist sentiments. Inclusion of migrants may become a hostile affair denting national security. The recent Assam-Bodo riots are a live example of this. 

With Nepal and Bhutan, India needs to address concerns and bridge the trust deficit by investing in the hydro projects in these countries. Though India has issues with Nepal on Gandak and Kosi Rivers, relations with Bhutan have so far been stress free due to cooperation on hydro-electricity generation. 

The pictograph below depicts the current Indian position with respect to broad parameters of1: 

1. Water Scarcity (impact on India): Impact on India in terms of water scarcity would be higher in the case of China, since India is a lower riparian region. Thus, Pakistan and Bangladesh rate lower on this parameter.

2. Possibility of violence due to water conflict: Possibility of violence or a potential armed conflict depends on existing bilateral relations. Given the scenario with Pakistan, this is higher. The same with China is relatively lower. 

3. Negotiation power of India: In the case of Bangladesh, the negotiation power of India is higher since the rivers flow from India to Bangladesh. 

4. Perceptions and sensitivities involved

5. Forced Migration (into India)

The plotted values are relative to one another. 

The Way Forward

The ways to resolve water scarcity and ensure water security are not new. Time and again, these aspects are brought up. However, little has been done in this area. On the diplomacy front, India should focus on establishing frameworks for water sharing in the areas of conflict, while undertaking confidence building measures in Nepal and Bhutan. India should seek all necessary hydrological data from China. Awareness within all stakeholders needs to be brought up with regard to climate changes and the impact on water flow. Ultimately, this just focuses on one way of securing water. 

To match the supply and demand of water as a resource, three possible solutions exist. These include increase in water supply, increase in the efficiency to minimise water losses and thus better resource utilisation (currently 40% of the water in urban areas is lost due to pipe leaks2), and to reduce the demand for water through change in water usage in various activities through innovation. While water/hydro-diplomacy and river water treaties with neighbouring countries can help secure water by the first way, efficient resource governance and innovation in water utilisation areas are the means to achieve the remaining two ways. 

India needs to improve its resource governance and water infrastructure, and deploy better technologies that bring in operational efficiencies to the process. 
(published in The Diplomatist, July 2013 Link: http://www.diplomatist.com/stories/story021.html)

Maldives: Vital Node of Influence in the Indian Ocean

Blessed with gorgeous green waters and enviable white beaches, and often termed as the Indian Ocean paradise with a tag line ‘sunny side of the life’, the microstate of the Maldives has had its share of political upheavals, natural disasters, attempted coups, riots, increasing radicalisation and other concerns that pose a threat to the national security of the island nation. This, in turn, has serious security implications to peninsular India.

Located geo-strategically in the Indian Ocean with three major sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) passing through its territorial waters, Maldives is a promise to India of a strategic node that can deliver a strong economic influence in the region during peace time and a great tactical advantage during wartime. However, it also has the potential to turn into a paradise lost by becoming a launch pad for attacks over India. 

Issues Confronting Maldives Today

Grappling with challenges of rising Islamic radicalisation in an otherwise moderate Maldivian culture, increasing drug abuse with atolls becoming hubs of drug trafficking and associated networks, violation of human rights that received huge criticism from the international community – Maldives is yet to stabilise as a democracy. 

Marked by diseconomies of scale and scope due to its small size, lack of natural resources and skilled manpower, geophysical constraints and vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters, a major share of the GDP comes from tourism and related services (including transportation and communication).

The ‘Pearl of the Indian Ocean’ has done a commendable job post-independence by improving the tourism industry, while positioning the country in the international scene as the one spearheading the world’s climatic change initiatives. Contrary to the four decade old UNDP’s conclusions that stated that the tourism industry cannot thrive in the Maldives due to lack of “facilities and infrastructure”, the country has carved a niche for itself as one of the most coveted vacation destinations. However, the future of Maldives relies heavily on international trade, especially for food and energy security. 

This article is an attempt to look at the Indo-Maldives association from a Copenhagen school of thought perspective of security that takes a holistic view of societal, political, environmental, military and economic aspects of national security, in order to assess the threat scenario and possible outcomes and their implications to either side. 

Precarious Political System

The political stability of the island state is crucial to India and its Indian Ocean strategy that is aimed largely at securing the SLOC’s to ensure that its supply chain is secure. This shall also ascertain greater strategic thrust serving broader security objectives for India. Marred with attempted coups, social unrest, growing terrorism and violation of human rights, the political system in Maldives is a very delicate fabric. 

Indian policy towards Maldives should be government focussed and not political party or a person focussed. India has learnt its lessons from the Bangladeshi strategy in a bitter way. At the moment, all major political parties in the ruling coalition as well as the opposition have a pro-India stance. India should leverage this universal acceptance and aim for a stable relationship. This draws more importance due to transition of Maldives into a multi-party democracy from the so called ‘beach dictatorship’.

Economic Imperatives

The atolls are composed of coral reefs and sandy beaches situated atop a submarine ridge 960 kilometres long that rises abruptly from the depths of the Indian Ocean and runs north to south. The southern end of this natural coral barricade opens to two passages that permit safe ship navigation from one side of the ocean to the other through the territorial waters of Maldives.

With 65 percent of maritime trade between the East and the West passing through the territorial waters of Maldives, it is one of the densest maritime trade routes of the world. The country that controls this trade route will eventually control the global economy. Such is the importance of this trade route and thus the strategic interests of various economies including India, China and the US. 

The threat to the security of our sea lanes is directly correlated to the threat to our energy security. Also, influence, if not dominance over trade routes, also serves a strategic purpose. During the Kargil conflict, for instance, a massive naval deployment 13 nautical miles away from Karachi denied oil supplies into Pakistan and prompted, some claim, to de-escalate its land assault and accelerated withdrawal of Pakistani forces from the disputed area. Trade routes, thus, form a crucial component in any assessment of India-Maldives dialogue. 

Energy Security

With no fossil fuel resources, the country depends on imports for petroleum products. The UNDP has rated Maldives as most vulnerable in terms of Oil Price Vulnerability Index (OPVI), which ranks countries in terms of their economic strength and performance, and their vulnerability to fluctuations in global oil prices. Maldives’ risk management strategies include hedging of the oil prices. For instance, Maldives secured long term contracts with Kuwait for oil with limited price discounts on spot rates and medium term supply contracts. In future too, it will rely heavily on the Arab world for its energy needs, part of which follows Islamic conservatism that could potentially translate into increased Islamic radicalisation in the islands. India’s foreign policy towards Maldives should thus take into consideration this inevitability. 

India may not be in a position to provide oil security to Maldives as the former imports 68 percent of its oil consumed. Investing in the alternate energy sector in Maldives could be a practical solution. A suitable trade and investment policy that encourages Indian entrepreneurs to set up bases in Maldives in this sector could be a viable option.

Food Security Concerns 

With no significant domestic cultivation, food security is a critical concern for Maldives. India’s intervention in this area must be aimed at safeguarding food security concerns, which in turn provides the archipelago greater flexibility in international relations. So far, India and the Arab countries have been providing food aid to the Maldives on an ad hoc basis, while Japan has been providing it on a regular basis. Continued support from India that would bolster the food security of Maldives would not only provide greater security, but also increased goodwill towards India. 

While agro-based investments are not a viable option due to lack of cultivable land in the islands, enhancing exports of fresh food and vegetables, especially from the southern part of the country that is closer, would deepen trade relations, if not revive the lost ethnic Dravidian identity that both sides share. 

Food and energy security have a strong influence on the political and economic stability of any country. Maldives is no exception. The 2004 Tsunami took its toll, hurting the tourism industry, a major contributor to the GDP and plunging the population into a state of abject poverty, unemployment and social unrest: a perfect recipe for any form of extremism to germinate and prosper. Lashkar-e-Taiba’s charitable wing Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq (IKK) is believed to have spent about $282,000 in Tsunami relief activities in 2005, an act that enabled the LeTgain access and foothold in the islands.

Threats to Societal and State Security

In 2011, the (then) President of Maldives expressed concerns over his country being used as the launch pad for any terrorist attack on India. India’s Intelligence Bureau also reported in the media that there was growing terror activity in Maldives, upholding deep concerns expressed by the US over Maldives becoming another terror hub. 

Instances of Maldivian militants attacking India pose a threat to the Indo-Maldivian relations. Kashmir, for example, witnessed Maldivian militants fighting against the Indian forces in 2007. The 26/11 Mumbai attacks, according to the (then) Maldivian President Nasheed, had a Maldivian connection. In 2009, nine jihadists from Maldives were arrested in Pakistan’s extremely conservative, pro-Taliban Waziristan province that often functions as an independent territory. 

Rampant radicalisation in the islands grew by infiltration of more than 500 clerics from various madrasas of Pakistan and Arab countries. The 2005 arrest of a militant, who frequented Kochi to procure arms and ammunition for LeT activities in Maldives, and who later confessed to planning the bombing of a government owned mosque and the assassination of the then president Gayoom, also confirms manifestation of religious terrorism in Maldives. This is a new phenomenon in an otherwise moderate and open Maldivian society, thus hampering the socio-cultural fabric of the nation. 

Nexus between Terrorists and Pirates 

The possibility of terrorists joining hands with the pirates to destabilise the Indian Ocean also poses a grave threat to the SLOC’s, further impacting global trade. A stronger cooperation between the two governments to curtail this threat is the need of the hour. A growing number of terrorist cells that operate out of Maldives are ready to strike at the orders from their main bases in Pakistan, Afghanistan, India or Iraq, according to security analysts in the region. India needs to consider the possibility of integration of Maldives into its security and intelligence grid, while strengthening the surveillance and monitoring operations in the region.

India needs to assume the role of not only a nation that safeguards the security interests of Maldives, but also that of upholding grassroot aspirations, especially that of the youth and students by providing them education in India in a much more secular environment. This would provide the youth with wider options, broader perspective and avenues of employment. India has rich cultural heritage hosting numerous madrasas that follow a rather moderate form of Islam. Handholding with these institutions of Islamic excellence by the Ministry of External Affairs and the Ministry of Cultural affairs would not only espouse values of peaceful Islam, but also provide us with an opportunity to put across our school of thought logically. In addition to this, educating the Maldivian youth in our institutions in the fields of Marine and Environmental Engineering, Arts and Sciences, Medicine and Law would foster strong ties between the communities on the either side. 

A Pearl in the ‘String of Pearls’?

A report by Booz Allen Hamilton to the Pentagon on ‘Energy Futures of Asia’ in 2003 coined a term called ‘String of Pearls’ that reported possible strategic encirclement by China. It is evident that Maldives presents a huge strategic advantage and the Sino-Indian interests in these pearls are thus need-driven. India can choke the sea lanes, denying oil into China should there be a land assault between India and China on the Himalayan frontiers. 

Operationally too, Maldives has a historical significance. As a British protectorate, the Southern Gan Island of Maldives was used as an operational base during the World War II, which is believed to have given a huge tactical advantage to the UK. This could also be another reason for Chinese interests in the islands. India, on the other hand, has established an operational base in the Lakshadweep, a few hundred miles from the Maldives, thus bringing about the same advantage with self-reliance. 

While China currently has no military base established in the Maldives, reports that indicated China’s interests in building a submarine base on Marao a few years ago irked New Delhi. Scholars from the University of Pennsylvania too documented in their writings that China’s submarine base in the Maldives represented a direct challenge to the American air and naval base at Diego Garcia. India, however, has a coastal radar network set upon the atolls of the Maldives that are integrated with the Indian Coastal command. Maldives is one area where the security interests of India and the US align thus providing an opportunity for Indo-US collaboration.

Policy Points to Ponder

The possibility of Maldives becoming a likely pearl for China is, however, remote. The archipelago would not want to face the hostility of a neighbour that has proven in many instances that Maldives is very much in the operational reach of the Indian Navy. Also, Maldives stated an ‘India-first-Policy’, which was reiterated by various presidents in the past. However, with the recent developments surrounding GMR and the anti-India wave in the archipelago, the government’s stance could differ from the stated policy.

Certain specific and targeted initiatives such as using the social media and the Internet for strengthening Indo-Maldives relations at grassroot level can do wonders. Maldives has high internet literacy accounting to about 1/3rd of its population. Thus, the Internet is a good medium for communication and pro-India campaigns. India should, with the support of the Maldivian government, tighten the security grid that integrates Maldives and address any trust deficit at the budding stages itself. India also needs to cautiously assess the socio-political and economic situation in the Maldives from time to time and avoid unnecessary securitisation of issues that are otherwise of social, political or economic nature. This would position India as a trustworthy friend and pave the way to beneficial long term relations. Maldives certainly is a worthy bet for bilateral cooperation towards enhanced security. 
(published in The Diplomatist, April 2013 Link: http://www.diplomatist.com/dipom04y2013/story009.html)