Getting the Afghanistan Story Right

The President of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, paid a two day working visit to India from May 20-22, during the course of which he was conferred a Doctoris Honoris Causa for Letters by the Lovely Professional University, Punjab. The visit was also an occasion to review the status of on-going Indian-assisted development projects in and for Afghanistan. Prasanthy Gurugubelli explores the intrinsic importance of a secure and stable Afghanistan for India and analyses the pertinent question of deescalating tensions in the region by a policy of active engagement. She also answers questions regarding India’s positive contributions to Afghanistan’s development for durable peace and sustainable economic development

Afghanistan, with its strategic location, can emerge not only as a critical transit hub, but can also boost economic development in the region, benefitting its immediate neighbours, India and Pakistan

The Indian government has been mindful of the international dynamics around Afghanistan, as the country remains key to India’s national security. Post the announcement of withdrawal of the NATO led (International Security Assistance Forces) ISAF; several confidence building measures have been taken to ensure the stability of Afghanistan. However, this is not an easy task as it would require concerted efforts and consensus on vital matters from regional powers such as India, China, Russia and Pakistan. India, Russia and China are concerned about the possibility of a resurgence of Taliban, which could threaten the delicate geo-strategic fabric of the volatile region. Emergence of the Taliban would threaten Afghanistan’s economic and political development and would spread insecurity throughout the regime, which, in turn, would sponsor international and home-grown terrorism. A peaceful, united and stable Afghanistan is vital for peace and economic development. There has to be a consolidated agreement to terrorism and extremism in Afghanistan, which cannot go unabated. There has to be pursuance of political, security and economic cooperation between Afghanistan and India.

Pipeline Politics

Historically, India has enjoyed good cultural ties with Afghanistan, except for the period from 1996-2001, which was dominated by Taliban rule of warring lords. Since the fall of the Taliban, India has been a primary donor in Afghanistan reconstruction. India has been instrumental in presenting aircrafts to kick-start Ariana Airlines, Afghanistan’s national carrier. India has also been active in building roads, schools, hospitals, and power and communication networks, besides training its military, police, bureaucrats, diplomats and even businessmen.

India is currently in discussions with Afghanistan to build a rail line from Bandar Abbas port in Western Iran, which will be a critical infrastructural linkage for Afghanistan’s first steel plant — the $11-billion Hajigak iron and steel project – promoted by Indian companies in central Afghanistan. The funding for this primarily comes from the $2 billion aid that the Indian government has offered to Afghanistan.

India has always sent out messages of solidarity and trust to this war-scarred nation. According to Former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, “On the political side, really our effort has been to contribute to the strengthening of this national consensus, inter-ethnic harmony in Afghanistan because we believe that for the return of political stability it is important for the different ethnic communities to work together”.

Ensuring Energy Security

Economically, Afghanistan is important to India as the country serves as a gateway to the energy and mineral rich Central Asian countries. The developing country has a lot of reconstruction projects and it offers significant opportunities for Indian companies. Afghanistan is a fast growing and emerging market of strategic importance, providing key transit routes for the Central Asian oil and gas market in India. However, a transit route connecting Iran and Central Asian countries has been denied to India by Pakistan, as the latter has always been averse to giving transit rights to India through Afghanistan. The issue of transit rights has affected talks of a gas pipeline from Iran via Afghanistan. India has often been misinterpreted by Pakistan, as one Pakistani official stated that the opening of Indian consulates in southern Afghanistan was motivated by the purpose of sponsoring cross border terrorism in Pakistan. Such attitudes from Pakistan’s strategic military circles have been averse to deepening India-Afghanistan ties.

Key Investment Area 

Afghanistan offers a pro-business minded environment with legislation favourable to private markets. The principles of free market economy are incorporated in the new Constitution, just as the growth of the private sector is the cornerstone of the National Developmental Strategy.

The country is home to rich natural resources and mineral reserves with more than 1,400 identified mineral deposits, including oil, gas, coal, iron and copper deposits of world quality. It is also well known for its reserves of emerald, jade, amethyst, alabaster, beryl, lapis, lazuli, ruby, quartz and sapphire. Great opportunities for investments also exist within the hydrocarbons industry.

Indian companies have already established bases in Afghanistan and are looking at a greater footprint. Thus, even in pure business terms, the country offers a great return on investment, but with the obvious risks.

Arch Rivals; Aligned Interests

Stability of Afghanistan is in the interest of the international community. The interests of US, Russia, India and China are all aligned in the Afghanistan story. India and China believe that a more regional approach is the need of the hour given the 2014 withdrawal of NATO forces. From the geo-economics standpoint, the US is interested in redirecting Central Asian oil from China to a market controlled by the stock exchanges in New York, London, Tokyo and Singapore; and, to find alternate routes to transport Caspian Sea resources without going through Iranian territory despite the fact that a route with access to the Persian Gulf is more cost-effective. The US may want to have its checks and balances in the region given the geopolitical interests of Russia and the growing influence of China. Russia certainly has an economic stake in post-war Afghanistan along with the possibility of facing instability in the central Asian region as also indoctrination of its Muslim population.

India and China held their first bilateral talks on Afghan security on April 18 this year. It is still unclear whether India and China will be able to collaborate with each other on Afghanistan, since both countries have invested heavily in the country’s mining and oil sectors. Further both countries have common security interests, as China is equally threatened by Islamic radicalisation and the repercussions of Taliban reprise in the Xinjiang province of China. However, analysts note that China might not want to upset its all-weather friend Pakistan by supporting India in any significant way.

While India’s efforts in development and reconstruction have been appreciated by the government and people of Afghanistan, India needs to be cautious of any possibility of misreading its intentions in the region as those of an expansionist power or as battling for Afghan wealth.

Afghanistan is surrounded on one hand by the Caspian basin that holds huge oil and gas reserves and China, India and Pakistan on the other hand, which are major consumers of oil and gas. Thus, it has a very high potential of becoming a strategic hub connecting Central Asia to various export routes and markets. It is a known fact that exploration for oil and gas in the region has been hindered by years of conflict and wars, leaving the country’s energy wealth mostly untapped.

The focus of Indian support to Afghanistan needs to be on the country’s economic empowerment and a strategic partnership that deepens friendly ties between both, resulting from long-standing efforts from both and strong cultural similarities. India has often reiterated that it does not view Afghanistan as a zero sum game and it is not a war against Pakistan. Afghanistan’s stability is crucial for India, not only from a security perspective but also from an economic standpoint. Afghanistan with its strategic location can become not only a critical transit hub, but also an economic driver of development in the region that will benefit countries like India and Pakistan. So far, India seems to be getting the Afghanistan story right with the right focus on development and capacity building and a decision of avoiding any involvement in bolstering Afghan security, except for running few courses for the Afghan forces in India.

(published in The Diplomatist, June 2013 Link: http://www.diplomatist.com/dipom06y2013/story010.html)

Hydro-Diplomacy & National Security

In a high-stakes-suspense and an intriguing plot, Clive Cussler in his recent novel The Storm brings out a most audacious scheme in which a global deliberate change in weather through organic microbots is planned. The microbots cause imbalance in the atmosphere affecting wind directions and weather parameters due to which the rainfall is directed to select areas. International Consortium of investors from water-poor nations funding this scheme included those from China and Pakistan. They envision monsoons in deserts and barren lands by shifting the monsoons from India and elsewhere, and direct them to Pakistan, China and the Arab countries. 

The concept above might just remain a science fiction. The underlying theme, however, is not new. For the last couple of decades, water as a critical resource has been a point of contention between India and it’s not so friendly neighbours. 

Water is an important national asset that drives economy, and impacts national development, social cohesion and peaceful living. Reports suggest that the annual per capita availability of renewable freshwater in India fell from 5,277 cubic metres in 1955 to 1730 cubic metres in 2010 and is estimated to further decline to 1240 for India by 2035. Six of India’s major river basins are ‘water-scarce’, according to a World Bank report. 

Water Security and National Security

Water security impacts national security, for it affects the very social cohesion of the nation. Resource constraints destabilise an economy and often impact the social cohesion. Resources of other nature, coal for e.g., have become a pivotal point aiding insurgencies in the region. Maoism in India, for instance, is prevalent in the coal rich, red belt of India.

With over 20 percent of world’s population and just four percent of its water, India is severely water stressed. Many experts on the subject also believe that water as a scarce resource is going to be the next major reason of conflict especially in the South Asia. In addition, water is a key factor in border tensions between India and its two neighbours – Pakistan and China.

India is deeply concerned about increased Chinese infrastructure construction activities along the Tsangpo River and the possible diversion to the water-scarce North China from the Great Bend. Arunachal Pradesh and Assam will be the worst hit states in case of any water diversion by China. The friction between the river sharing neighbours will only increase if a mutually acceptable doctrine or a framework for river water sharing in various scenarios is not worked out. In an environmentally insecure South Asia, India shares its water with China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan and to a lesser extent, with Myanmar. In states like Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, which are more dependent on the Brahmaputra River that flows from Tibet into lower riparian India, water will be a point of tension between India and the water poor Tibet/China. 

On the Eastern side, India has been generous in terms of the water sharing with Pakistan through the Indus Waters Treaty. Pakistan, however, accuses India of planning a ‘water bomb’ by suffocating its economy by manipulating Indus waters. Pakistani-based terrorist outfits have linked water with jihad, while the Pakistani government used it as a weapon to distract attention. An editorial in April in Nawa-i-Waqt, a Pakistani newspaper, warned that “Pakistan should convey to India that a war is possible on the issue of water, and this time, war will be a nuclear one.” Lashkar-e-Taiba threatens to blow up any dams that might come up on the Indus waters. 

India has many treaties signed with Bangladesh. Yet, sharing of Teesta River (lifeline river of Sikkim) and the construction of Tipaimukh hydro project have caused political discontent between the Indian and Bangladeshi sides. In north-eastern India bordering Bangladesh, severe water scarcity in Bangladesh may lead to forced migration of thousands of environmental refugees from Bangladesh into India. North-eastern India, as such, is sensitive with separatist sentiments. Inclusion of migrants may become a hostile affair denting national security. The recent Assam-Bodo riots are a live example of this. 

With Nepal and Bhutan, India needs to address concerns and bridge the trust deficit by investing in the hydro projects in these countries. Though India has issues with Nepal on Gandak and Kosi Rivers, relations with Bhutan have so far been stress free due to cooperation on hydro-electricity generation. 

The pictograph below depicts the current Indian position with respect to broad parameters of1: 

1. Water Scarcity (impact on India): Impact on India in terms of water scarcity would be higher in the case of China, since India is a lower riparian region. Thus, Pakistan and Bangladesh rate lower on this parameter.

2. Possibility of violence due to water conflict: Possibility of violence or a potential armed conflict depends on existing bilateral relations. Given the scenario with Pakistan, this is higher. The same with China is relatively lower. 

3. Negotiation power of India: In the case of Bangladesh, the negotiation power of India is higher since the rivers flow from India to Bangladesh. 

4. Perceptions and sensitivities involved

5. Forced Migration (into India)

The plotted values are relative to one another. 

The Way Forward

The ways to resolve water scarcity and ensure water security are not new. Time and again, these aspects are brought up. However, little has been done in this area. On the diplomacy front, India should focus on establishing frameworks for water sharing in the areas of conflict, while undertaking confidence building measures in Nepal and Bhutan. India should seek all necessary hydrological data from China. Awareness within all stakeholders needs to be brought up with regard to climate changes and the impact on water flow. Ultimately, this just focuses on one way of securing water. 

To match the supply and demand of water as a resource, three possible solutions exist. These include increase in water supply, increase in the efficiency to minimise water losses and thus better resource utilisation (currently 40% of the water in urban areas is lost due to pipe leaks2), and to reduce the demand for water through change in water usage in various activities through innovation. While water/hydro-diplomacy and river water treaties with neighbouring countries can help secure water by the first way, efficient resource governance and innovation in water utilisation areas are the means to achieve the remaining two ways. 

India needs to improve its resource governance and water infrastructure, and deploy better technologies that bring in operational efficiencies to the process. 
(published in The Diplomatist, July 2013 Link: http://www.diplomatist.com/stories/story021.html)